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新华社北京5月24日电 述评:穆迪调降中国评级存在三大误判

新华社记者 杜静

国际信用评级机构穆迪24日将中国主权信用评级从Aa3调降至A1,同时将评级展望从“负面”上调至“稳定”。穆迪提出调降评级主要有三个理由,即中国实体经济债务规模将快速增长、相关改革措施难见成效、地方债及企业债将增加政府或有债务。专家认为,穆迪的观点存在对中国经济明显的误读和误判,评级结果存在偏差。

首先,穆迪在报告中预测,2018年中国政府债务占国内生产总值(GDP)比重将达40%,2020年达到45%。但事实上,2016年中国政府债务占GDP比重为36.7%,与上年相比变化不大。今后,随着供给侧结构性改革不断推进,政府举债受到严格控制,政府债务有望保持合理规模,2018至2020年中国政府债务风险指标与2016年相比预计不会发生大的变化。

中国银行全球市场部高级交易员李凡在接受新华社记者采访时说,穆迪下调中国主权信用评级只是“一家之言”。今年以来,中国5年期国债信用违约互换(CDS)的基准价格在80个基点左右,而这一指标几年前曾高达150个基点,这说明国际市场认为中国经济基本面在改善、信用风险在降低。穆迪公布下调中国评级的消息后,离岸人民币微跌,总体来说市场反应平稳。

其次,穆迪认为,中国相关改革措施难见成效,中国经济增速将持续放缓。这一观点在一定程度上高估了中国经济面临的困难,低估了中国政府深化供给侧结构性改革和适度扩大总需求的能力。

今年以来,中国经济仍然延续稳中向好的发展态势,一季度GDP增长6.9%,同比加快0.2个百分点,充分显示出供给侧结构性改革的效果正在不断显现。随着改革持续深化,中国经济有望继续保持平稳较快增长。

再次,穆迪在报告中称,除了政府直接债务,地方政府融资平台、国有企业等债务水平持续增长会增加政府或有债务。这更是对中国法律和相关法规缺乏必要的了解。依照《中华人民共和国担保法》、《中华人民共和国预算法》等规定,穆迪的上述观点不成立。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)财政事务部主任维托尔·加斯帕尔在接受新华社记者采访时表示,从国际标准来看,中国政府债务水平仍然比较低。同时,中国政府的资产负债表比大多数新兴经济体都要健康,中国政府持有的金融资产远超负担的金融债务,中国拥有充足的“财政火力”来管理债务风险。

自去年以来,不少西方机构和媒体多次谈及中国债务风险。去年3月,穆迪就曾将中国主权信用评级展望从“稳定”下调至“负面”,中国经济后来的实际表现却是“稳中有进”。

穆迪此次在调降中国主权信用评级的同时,上调了中国的评级展望,似乎在显示其评级的平衡与公允。但业内人士指出,穆迪此举更多是一个技术层面的变化,在对未来前景持同样预期的情况下,调低当前评级,展望就会上调。

有分析人士认为,长期以来,西方评级机构对信用咨询市场具有重大影响,但其评级方法存在缺陷,信誉早已受到质疑。

首先,西方评级机构过分看重制度因素,定性分析比重较大,主观性较强,对新兴市场和发展中国家存在一定的歧视性。国家信息中心经济预测部副研究员程伟力在接受新华社记者采访时说,2007年,新兴市场国家获得的评级通常比负债水平近似的发达国家低8到12个等级。随着新兴市场的蓬勃发展,这一差距有所改善,但截至2015年也仅仅缩小了两个等级。

在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司2016年股东大会上,“股神”巴菲特被问及为何伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司没有得到3A最高信用评级时说:“这种信用评级根本是错误的机制,而且是阻碍不前的机制。”

其次,评级机构过度依赖历史数据,评级行为高度顺周期,难以做出前瞻性的预警。例如,在2008年国际金融危机爆发后,穆迪评级没能起到预警作用,仍一直将希腊的A1评级保持到2009年年底。要知道,A1评级是穆迪评级体系中的第五高评级,这说明穆迪评级存在滞后性,缺乏前瞻性。

当然,尽管西方评级机构对中国的信用评级存在偏差,我们不妨本着“兼听则明”的精神,将这些机构的观点视为对防范风险的提醒,把风险管控进一步做牢做实。

近年来,中国政府通过一系列措施管控债务风险,包括建立债务风险预警机制、全面构建债务监管体制、实施地方政府债务置换等。正如国际货币基金组织专家加斯帕尔所说:“中国政府已充分认识到债务风险问题,并已采取相应措施。”(参与记者:康逸、俞懋峰、樊宇)

 原标题: 述评:穆迪调降中国评级存在三大误判

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